On Sunday, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb issued a stark warning regarding the potential economic fallout from planned protests and sit-ins, estimating a daily loss of approximately Rs120 billion. This statement was made during a recorded televised message, coinciding with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) announcement to stage a protest march to Islamabad on September 27, which the government intends to thwart.
The PTI’s nationwide protests aim to call attention to the release of Imran Khan, the party’s founder, and to advocate for constitutional supremacy as they prepare to march towards the capital. Concurrently, the Jamaat-i-Islami has also initiated its own march to Islamabad, pressing for an end to the fuel levy.
Economic Consequences of Protests
In his address, Minister Aurangzeb pointed out that the protests, particularly in light of economic difficulties exacerbated by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, represent a form of ‘self-inflicted pain.’ He highlighted the impact of these tensions on supply chains, increasing freight charges, and heightened insurance costs.
A recent bombing in Kohat was also noted, indicating a rising wave of terrorism which compounds the country’s economic challenges. Aurangzeb mentioned that discussions had been held with the economic wing of the planning commission to assess the implications of these protests on the economy, particularly given the tough decisions that have been made in recent times.
Projected Financial Losses from Protests
The finance minister elaborated that the planning commission’s estimates suggest that the protests could lead to a daily economic loss of Rs120 billion, a figure he claims is supported by substantial research. The services sector is expected to bear the brunt of this impact, with losses projected at Rs86 billion, affecting sectors such as finance, communication, retail, transportation, wholesale, and hospitality.
Additionally, the industrial sector is forecasted to incur losses of around Rs25 billion, which includes the construction industry and the supply chain for both finished goods and raw materials. The agricultural sector is not exempt, with anticipated losses of Rs9 billion.
Broader Implications for National Revenue
Aurangzeb also warned of further repercussions, estimating an additional Rs17 billion in revenue losses should the protests proceed as planned. He pointed out the significant burden this would place on the national treasury, particularly concerning logistics, transportation, fuel, and security measures deployed in response to previous protests and sit-ins.
Highlighting the importance of export-led growth, the finance minister stated that Pakistan’s targets for the current fiscal year are set at $35.9 billion, with an anticipated 6% increase. He confirmed that the country had been on track during the first two months of this fiscal year.
Aurangzeb recalled past instances, such as a strike in December 2025, which took 1.5 months for the economy to recover from. He underscored that similar disruptions could severely damage the growth trajectory, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions in regions like Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.
